Serious sports bettors often dismiss futures wagers as sucker bets targeted at 'squares' looking for a big payoff. For example, a typical futures 'sucker bet' would be something like betting that Harvard will win the NCAA basketball tournament at 500/1 odds. Sure, the potential payback is huge but here's the problem--the "true odds" of Harvard winning the NCAA hoops tournament are astronomical, and certainly well in excess of 500/1. That means that from the outset this bet represents a poor wagering value.
For the more serious bettor, there's a number of obvious problems with futures wagers. They require that your wagering 'capital' be tied up for months. Furthermore, once you've placed your bet you're at the mercy of injuries, suspensions, trades and the other numerous factors that can spell defeat for a sports team. It's no simple task keeping up with these variables on a day to day basis, and predicting them over a longer term is the province of psychics and not sports handicappers.
So why bet futures at all? More so than anything else, its essential to think of sports wagering not in terms of who wins or loses, but in terms of value. Properly utilized, future book wagers are often a great source of value. Below are some of the ways I like to use future wagers:
Futures can be a good way to leverage value on propositions where your knowledge is greater than the bookmaker's. For example, many sports books offer betting propositions on entertainment oriented events like the Academy Awards. A handicapper who pays close attention to the movie industry and Hollywood news can stay one step ahead of the linesmaker.
Every year some sportsbooks start to take action on the big Academy Awards categories like Best Picture and Best Director well before the actual nominations are released. If you can stay up-to-date on the buzz surrounding certain films you can get substantially better value than if you wait until after the nominations are released.
Making the Academy Awards an even better candidate for futures wagers is the nature of the film business itself. The release schedule for films is set well in advance, and after the year end cut off date no 'surprise' releases can sneak in to consideration. At this point, its relatively easy to narrow down the serious contenders and with some work to come up with a 'short list' of Oscar candidates.
It's also possible to leverage value in the 'stick and ball' sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found 'under the radar'. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you'll be hard pressed to find a value price on such a popular team with the general public.
To find value on this sort of wager you need to look for 'dark horse' candidates. For example, at midseason you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they're one of four teams remaining and are priced at 5/1 to 7/1 depending on the book.
This play wasn't based on any sort of certainty that this team would win the Stanley Cup, but rather on the value they presented. In other words, the true odds of this dark horse Cup win is more in the range of the current price so the 40/1 is a clear overlay. Once the playoffs begin, this sort of positional play offers a lot of options to hedge and to lock in a profit.
"The field" can occasionally offer wagering value as well. A good example was the NASCAR Rookie of the Year futures in 2001. Some books offered a bet on 'the field' at prices as high as 15/1. After Dale Earnhardt's tragic death, his team turned to rookie Kevin Harvick to fill 'The Intimidator's' place in the driver's seat. Someone who followed NASCAR closely knew this was going to happen well before it was publicly announced, and was able to grab a great price on Harvick as part of 'the field'. By midseason, Harvick's success had pushed prices on 'the field' down to the point that it was the favorite everywhere with prices in the range of -250 to -300.
This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didn't work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn't uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.
As a postscript, I want to emphasize the importance on shopping around any futures play for the best price. Shopping points is a smart thing to do on any wager, but the differences from book to book are frequently most extreme with futures plays. A little legwork can yield a substantially better price and the resulting better value.
For the more serious bettor, there's a number of obvious problems with futures wagers. They require that your wagering 'capital' be tied up for months. Furthermore, once you've placed your bet you're at the mercy of injuries, suspensions, trades and the other numerous factors that can spell defeat for a sports team. It's no simple task keeping up with these variables on a day to day basis, and predicting them over a longer term is the province of psychics and not sports handicappers.
So why bet futures at all? More so than anything else, its essential to think of sports wagering not in terms of who wins or loses, but in terms of value. Properly utilized, future book wagers are often a great source of value. Below are some of the ways I like to use future wagers:
Futures can be a good way to leverage value on propositions where your knowledge is greater than the bookmaker's. For example, many sports books offer betting propositions on entertainment oriented events like the Academy Awards. A handicapper who pays close attention to the movie industry and Hollywood news can stay one step ahead of the linesmaker.
Every year some sportsbooks start to take action on the big Academy Awards categories like Best Picture and Best Director well before the actual nominations are released. If you can stay up-to-date on the buzz surrounding certain films you can get substantially better value than if you wait until after the nominations are released.
Making the Academy Awards an even better candidate for futures wagers is the nature of the film business itself. The release schedule for films is set well in advance, and after the year end cut off date no 'surprise' releases can sneak in to consideration. At this point, its relatively easy to narrow down the serious contenders and with some work to come up with a 'short list' of Oscar candidates.
It's also possible to leverage value in the 'stick and ball' sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found 'under the radar'. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you'll be hard pressed to find a value price on such a popular team with the general public.
To find value on this sort of wager you need to look for 'dark horse' candidates. For example, at midseason you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they're one of four teams remaining and are priced at 5/1 to 7/1 depending on the book.
This play wasn't based on any sort of certainty that this team would win the Stanley Cup, but rather on the value they presented. In other words, the true odds of this dark horse Cup win is more in the range of the current price so the 40/1 is a clear overlay. Once the playoffs begin, this sort of positional play offers a lot of options to hedge and to lock in a profit.
"The field" can occasionally offer wagering value as well. A good example was the NASCAR Rookie of the Year futures in 2001. Some books offered a bet on 'the field' at prices as high as 15/1. After Dale Earnhardt's tragic death, his team turned to rookie Kevin Harvick to fill 'The Intimidator's' place in the driver's seat. Someone who followed NASCAR closely knew this was going to happen well before it was publicly announced, and was able to grab a great price on Harvick as part of 'the field'. By midseason, Harvick's success had pushed prices on 'the field' down to the point that it was the favorite everywhere with prices in the range of -250 to -300.
This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didn't work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn't uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.
As a postscript, I want to emphasize the importance on shopping around any futures play for the best price. Shopping points is a smart thing to do on any wager, but the differences from book to book are frequently most extreme with futures plays. A little legwork can yield a substantially better price and the resulting better value.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, wombat racing, travel and fencing. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a number of Internet and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a wombat.
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